SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
34.78% ( 0.42) | 22.82% ( 0) | 42.39% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 65.56% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.63% ( 0.1) | 35.37% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.6% ( 0.12) | 57.4% ( -0.11) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.26% ( 0.26) | 20.73% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.64% ( 0.41) | 53.35% ( -0.41) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.71% ( -0.13) | 17.29% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.36% ( -0.22) | 47.63% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.99% Total : 34.78% | 1-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.82% | 1-2 @ 8.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 5.08% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 4% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.03)3-4 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 3.27% Total : 42.39% |
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