SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 58.57%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 22.38% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
58.57% ( 0.27) | 19.06% ( -0.02) | 22.38% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.12% ( -0.21) | 25.88% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.94% ( -0.27) | 46.07% ( 0.27) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.99% ( -0) | 9.01% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.31% ( -0.01) | 30.7% ( 0.01) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.69% ( -0.31) | 23.31% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.74% ( -0.45) | 57.26% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.59% Total : 58.57% | 1-1 @ 7.36% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.64% Total : 19.06% | 1-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.04)0-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 22.38% |
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