SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 21.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
56.79% ( 0.21) | 21.48% ( -0.17) | 21.72% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 59.49% ( 0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.31% ( 0.72) | 38.69% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39% ( 0.76) | 60.99% ( -0.76) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.5% ( 0.3) | 13.49% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.47% ( 0.61) | 40.52% ( -0.61) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.77% ( 0.36) | 31.23% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.42% ( 0.42) | 67.57% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.1)1-0 @ 8.44% ( -0.2)3-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.64% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.56% Total : 56.8% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.48% | 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.7% Total : 21.72% |
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