Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
40.01% (![]() | 22.68% (![]() | 37.3% (![]() |
Both teams to score 66.57% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.76% (![]() | 34.24% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.86% (![]() | 56.14% (![]() |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.19% (![]() | 17.81% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.47% (![]() | 48.53% (![]() |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.99% (![]() | 19% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.44% (![]() | 50.56% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 8.37% (![]() 1-0 @ 5.84% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 5.04% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.81% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 4% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 2.9% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.08% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.72% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.25% ( ![]() 4-3 @ 0.95% ( ![]() Other @ 3.06% Total : 40.01% | 1-1 @ 9.7% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.95% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 3.38% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 2.21% ( ![]() Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 8.05% (![]() 0-1 @ 5.62% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.67% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 4.46% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.85% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2.58% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.85% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.6% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 1.07% ( ![]() 3-4 @ 0.92% ( ![]() Other @ 2.65% Total : 37.3% |
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