SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 52.45%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.52%) and 3-1 (6.39%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
52.45% ( 0.68) | 21.22% ( 0.06) | 26.33% ( -0.73) |
| Both teams to score 66.28% ( -0.93) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.72% ( -0.92) | 32.29% ( 0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.1% ( -1.08) | 53.9% ( 1.09) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.35% ( -0.11) | 12.65% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.19% ( -0.24) | 38.81% ( 0.25) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.88% ( -0.96) | 24.12% ( 0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.57% ( -1.39) | 58.43% ( 1.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.28)3-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.37% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.53% Total : 52.45% | 1-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.45% Total : 21.22% | 1-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.72% Total : 26.33% |
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