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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 36.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
36.46% ( 0.65) | 25.37% ( 0.07) | 38.17% ( -0.72) |
| Both teams to score 56.43% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.64% ( -0.24) | 47.35% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.43% ( -0.22) | 69.57% ( 0.22) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( 0.26) | 25.34% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.87% ( 0.36) | 60.13% ( -0.36) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.59% ( -0.49) | 24.41% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.17% ( -0.69) | 58.83% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.73% Total : 36.46% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.89% Total : 38.17% |
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