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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
52.32% ( 5.94) | 20.29% ( -0.95) | 27.39% ( -4.99) |
| Both teams to score 70.95% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.32% ( 1.54) | 26.67% ( -1.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.92% ( 1.93) | 47.07% ( -1.94) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.21% ( 2.27) | 10.78% ( -2.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.19% ( 4.83) | 34.8% ( -4.84) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.52% ( -1.9) | 20.47% ( 1.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.06% ( -3.1) | 52.93% ( 3.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.71)2-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.45)3-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.28)1-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.65)4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.67)4-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.39)4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.53)5-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.41)4-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.12)5-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.27)5-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.3)Other @ 3.55% Total : 52.32% | 1-1 @ 7.8% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.24)3-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.69% Total : 20.29% | 1-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.81) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.36)0-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.58)1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.66)0-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.66)0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.46)2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.24)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.36)3-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.73% Total : 27.39% |
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