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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 61.34%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 19.92% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.38%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (5.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
61.34% ( 0.3) | 18.74% ( -0.12) | 19.92% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 66.94% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.15% ( 0.29) | 27.85% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.44% ( 0.37) | 48.56% ( -0.36) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.03% ( 0.16) | 8.96% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.41% ( 0.37) | 30.58% ( -0.36) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.53% ( 0.02) | 26.46% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.35% ( 0.03) | 61.64% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.48% Total : 61.34% | 1-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.37% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.5% Total : 18.74% | 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.7% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.74% Total : 19.92% |
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