SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.61%) and 3-1 (5.11%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Macarthur |
41.93% ( -0.6) | 22.31% ( 0.17) | 35.76% ( 0.42) |
| Both teams to score 67.81% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.45% ( -0.81) | 32.54% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.8% ( -0.94) | 54.19% ( 0.94) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.67% ( -0.56) | 16.32% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.09% ( -1.02) | 45.91% ( 1.02) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( -0.17) | 18.96% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.5% ( -0.28) | 50.49% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.05)4-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.65% Total : 41.93% | 1-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.31% | 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.65% Total : 35.76% |
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