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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
38.98% ( 0.32) | 24.62% ( 0.13) | 36.4% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 59.11% ( -0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.1% ( -0.65) | 43.9% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.71% ( -0.64) | 66.29% ( 0.64) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.56% ( -0.13) | 22.44% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.02% ( -0.19) | 55.98% ( 0.19) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( -0.54) | 23.79% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.05% ( -0.78) | 57.95% ( 0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 38.98% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.61% | 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.4% |
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