SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 42.01%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
42.01% ( -0.83) | 25.41% ( 0.27) | 32.58% ( 0.57) |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( -0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.77% ( -0.99) | 48.23% ( 1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.62% ( -0.91) | 70.38% ( 0.92) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.16% ( -0.82) | 22.84% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.43% ( -1.23) | 56.57% ( 1.24) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.92% ( -0.12) | 28.08% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.26% ( -0.16) | 63.74% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.17% Total : 42.01% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.15% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 32.58% |
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