Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
