SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 53.76%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 24.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
53.76% ( 0.35) | 22.17% ( 0) | 24.07% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 60.23% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.87% ( -0.39) | 39.13% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.54% ( -0.41) | 61.45% ( 0.41) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.4% ( -0.02) | 14.6% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.31% ( -0.04) | 42.69% ( 0.04) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.53% ( -0.49) | 29.47% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.52% ( -0.61) | 65.48% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.22% Total : 53.76% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.16% | 1-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.18% Total : 24.07% |
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