SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.81%) and 3-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
45.18% ( -0.04) | 22.08% ( -0) | 32.74% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 67.65% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.64% ( 0.02) | 32.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.02% ( 0.02) | 53.98% ( -0.02) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.96% ( -0.01) | 15.04% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.47% ( -0.02) | 43.53% ( 0.02) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.62% ( 0.03) | 20.38% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.21% ( 0.05) | 52.79% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 8.75% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.53% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.39% 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.1% 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 3.29% Total : 45.18% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.07% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.33% ( 0)Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 7.35% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.88% 1-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.69% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.55% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.47% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 3.06% Total : 32.74% |
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