SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
34.43% ( -0.38) | 25.08% ( 0.07) | 40.49% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 57.15% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.69% ( -0.4) | 46.31% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.4% ( -0.38) | 68.59% ( 0.38) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.98% ( -0.41) | 26.02% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.94% ( -0.56) | 61.05% ( 0.55) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.25% ( -0.03) | 22.75% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.57% ( -0.04) | 56.43% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.34% Total : 34.43% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.08% | 0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 4.31% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.6% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.23% Total : 40.49% |
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