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AFC Champions League | Final | 1st Leg
May 11, 2024 at 11am UK
Nissan Stadium

Yokohama
2 - 1
Al-Ain

Uenaka (72'), Watanabe (84')
Uenaka (75'), Nagato (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Al Baloushi (12')
Yong-woo (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Al-Hilal 2-1 Al-Ain
Tuesday, April 23 at 7pm in AFC Champions League

We said: Yokohama F Marinos 2-1 Al-Ain

Saturday's first leg is close to call, with Kewell's inexperienced Yokohama hosting an Al-Ain side keen to secure a second title. Marinos' strength at home — five straight wins at Nissan Stadium in the AFC Champions League and one loss in 14 in all competitions as hosts — should see them secure a marginal advantage over Crespo's team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yokohama F Marinos win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Al-Ain had a probability of 28.88% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Yokohama F Marinos win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Al-Ain win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Yokohama F Marinos in this match.

Result
Yokohama F MarinosDrawAl-Ain
50.58% (0.207 0.21) 20.53% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05) 28.88% (-0.155 -0.16)
Both teams to score 71.3% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.28% (0.151 0.15)26.71% (-0.149 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
52.87% (0.191 0.19)47.13% (-0.189 -0.19)
Yokohama F Marinos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.73% (0.111 0.11)11.27% (-0.109 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.13% (0.241 0.24)35.87% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)
Al-Ain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.36% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)19.64% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.39% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)51.61% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Yokohama F Marinos 50.58%
    Al-Ain 28.88%
    Draw 20.53%
Yokohama F MarinosDrawAl-Ain
2-1 @ 8.58% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.25% (0.024 0.02)
2-0 @ 5.27% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 5.08% (0.018 0.02)
1-0 @ 4.83% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.84% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.41% (0.028 0.03)
4-2 @ 2.78% (0.022 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.1% (0.018 0.02)
4-3 @ 1.51% (0.012 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.49% (0.019 0.02)
5-2 @ 1.21% (0.015 0.01)
5-0 @ 0.92% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 50.58%
1-1 @ 7.86% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 6.99% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-3 @ 2.76% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.21% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 20.53%
1-2 @ 6.4% (-0.035 -0.04)
2-3 @ 3.79% (-0.004 -0)
0-1 @ 3.6% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-3 @ 3.47% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.93% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.59% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.54% (-0.002 -0)
1-4 @ 1.41% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-4 @ 1.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 28.88%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Urawa 2-1 Yokohama
Monday, May 6 at 9am in J1 League
Last Game: Yokohama 1-1 Jubilo Iwata
Friday, May 3 at 6am in J1 League
Last Game: Cerezo 2-2 Yokohama
Saturday, April 27 at 7am in J1 League
Last Game: Yokohama 3-2 Ulsan (5-4 pen.)
Wednesday, April 24 at 11am in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Ulsan 1-0 Yokohama
Wednesday, April 17 at 11am in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Yokohama 2-2 Shonan Bellmare
Saturday, April 13 at 6am in J1 League
Last Game: Al-Hilal 2-1 Al-Ain
Tuesday, April 23 at 7pm in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Al-Ain 4-2 Al-Hilal
Wednesday, April 17 at 5pm in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Al-Nassr 4-3 Al-Ain (1-3 pen.)
Monday, March 11 at 7pm in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Al-Ain 1-0 Al-Nassr
Monday, March 4 at 4pm in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Al-Ain 2-1 Nasaf
Wednesday, February 21 at 4pm in AFC Champions League
Last Game: Nasaf 0-0 Al-Ain
Wednesday, February 14 at 2pm in AFC Champions League


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