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World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Nov 21, 2023 at 1pm UK
Bingu National Stadium
TN
Malawi
0 - 1
Tunisia

Idana (9'), Kumwembe (65'), Chaziya (77')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Msakni (88' pen.)
Sassi (58')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Liberia 0-1 Malawi
Friday, November 17 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Tunisia 4-0 Sao Tome
Friday, November 17 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

We said: Malawi 0-1 Tunisia

We expect Malawi to hang back and try to hit their opponents on the counter, given who they are up against, and while they have been quite capable of containing opposing attacks, the Malawians have not faced a side with as much quality as Tunisia in quite some time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 43.02%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 28.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Tunisia in this match.

Result
MalawiDrawTunisia
43.02% (-0.183 -0.18) 28.86% (0.085000000000001 0.09) 28.11% (0.093 0.09)
Both teams to score 43.33% (-0.175 -0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.2% (-0.243 -0.24)62.79% (0.236 0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.68% (-0.177 -0.18)82.32% (0.17099999999999 0.17)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.01% (-0.21900000000001 -0.22)28.98% (0.213 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.11% (-0.271 -0.27)64.88% (0.264 0.26)
Tunisia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.01% (-0.061 -0.06)38.98% (0.053999999999995 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.29% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)75.7% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 43.02%
    Tunisia 28.11%
    Draw 28.85%
MalawiDrawTunisia
1-0 @ 13.99% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.66% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.16% (-0.037999999999998 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.58% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.37% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.59% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.11% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.04% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 43.02%
1-1 @ 13.18% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 11.29% (0.1 0.1)
2-2 @ 3.85% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 28.85%
0-1 @ 10.64% (0.08 0.08)
1-2 @ 6.21% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 5.02% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.58% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.21% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 28.11%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Liberia 0-1 Malawi
Friday, November 17 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Malawi 2-2 Guinea
Saturday, September 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Malawi 0-0 South Africa (3-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 16 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 1-1 Lesotho (0-3 pen.)
Friday, July 14 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 2-0 Comoros
Tuesday, July 11 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 2-0 Seychelles
Sunday, July 9 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Tunisia 4-0 Sao Tome
Friday, November 17 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Japan 2-0 Tunisia
Tuesday, October 17 at 11.10am in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Korea 4-0 Tunisia
Friday, October 13 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Egypt 1-3 Tunisia
Tuesday, September 12 at 6pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Tunisia 3-0 Botswana
Thursday, September 7 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Algeria 1-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, June 20 at 8pm in International Friendlies
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