SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 74.97%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 7.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.16%) and 3-0 (11.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Egypt | Draw | Ethiopia |
74.97% ( 0.09) | 17.04% ( -0.07) | 7.99% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 37.71% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.47% ( 0.21) | 48.52% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.35% ( 0.19) | 70.65% ( -0.19) |
| Egypt Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.7% ( 0.08) | 11.3% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.07% ( 0.18) | 35.93% ( -0.18) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.51% ( 0.08) | 57.49% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.68% ( 0.04) | 89.31% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Egypt | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 2-0 @ 15.44% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 14.16% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 11.22% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 74.96% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.04% | 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( -0)0-2 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 1.23% Total : 7.99% |
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