SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Libya had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-0 (11.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Libya | Draw | Ethiopia |
34.19% ( -1.94) | 28.45% ( -0.16) | 37.35% ( 2.11) |
| Both teams to score 46.37% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.03% ( 0.52) | 59.97% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.78% ( 0.39) | 80.21% ( -0.39) |
| Libya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.08% ( -1) | 32.92% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.5% ( -1.13) | 69.49% ( 1.13) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.12% ( 1.6) | 30.88% ( -1.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.83% ( 1.84) | 67.17% ( -1.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Libya | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.54) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.23)2-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.19% | 1-1 @ 13.27% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.45% | 0-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.31)0-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.47)1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.25)0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.29)2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.09% Total : 37.35% |
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