SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 24.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.56%), while for a Malawi win it was 1-0 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Egypt |
24.59% ( 0.54) | 30.02% ( 0.09) | 45.39% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 38.43% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.27% ( 0.04) | 67.73% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.25% ( 0.03) | 85.75% ( -0.03) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.02% ( 0.55) | 44.98% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.08% ( 0.43) | 80.92% ( -0.43) |
| Egypt Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.85% ( -0.32) | 30.15% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.7% ( -0.38) | 66.3% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Egypt |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.7% Total : 24.59% | 0-0 @ 13.56% ( -0.02) 1-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.35% Total : 30.01% | 0-1 @ 16.26% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.19)1-2 @ 7.79% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.24% Total : 45.39% |
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