SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Rwanda had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.24%) and 2-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.79%), while for a Rwanda win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 19% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ethiopia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Rwanda |
52.65% ( -0.65) | 29.29% ( 0.15) | 18.07% ( 0.5) |
| Both teams to score 33.61% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 29.92% ( 0.04) | 70.08% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.72% ( 0.03) | 87.29% ( -0.02) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.38% ( -0.3) | 27.62% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.84% ( -0.38) | 63.16% ( 0.38) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.43% ( 0.65) | 53.57% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.99% ( 0.4) | 87.01% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Rwanda |
| 1-0 @ 19.03% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 12.24% ( -0.22)2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.42% Total : 52.63% | 0-0 @ 14.79% ( -0.02) 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.22% Total : 29.28% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.24% Total : 18.07% |
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