SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Algeria in this match.
| Result | ||
| Algeria | Draw | Nigeria |
41.13% ( 0.04) | 24.65% ( 0.07) | 34.22% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 58.62% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.62% ( -0.33) | 44.38% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.25% ( -0.32) | 66.75% ( 0.33) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.4% ( -0.12) | 21.61% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.29% ( -0.19) | 54.71% ( 0.2) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.77% ( -0.22) | 25.23% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.03% ( -0.3) | 59.97% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Algeria | Draw | Nigeria |
| 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 41.13% | 1-1 @ 11.5% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.65% | 1-2 @ 7.92% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.62% Total : 34.22% |
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