SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Togo | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Togo win with a probability of 54.96%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 18.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Togo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Togo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Togo | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
54.96% ( -1.5) | 26.15% ( 0.22) | 18.89% ( 1.29) |
| Both teams to score 41.34% ( 1.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.37% ( 0.72) | 60.63% ( -0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.28% ( 0.54) | 80.71% ( -0.54) |
| Togo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.74% ( -0.33) | 22.26% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.3% ( -0.5) | 55.7% ( 0.5) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.18% ( 2) | 46.82% ( -2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.65% ( 1.48) | 82.35% ( -1.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Togo | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 15.65% ( -0.59) 2-0 @ 11.76% ( -0.56)2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 54.95% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 10.42% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.46% Total : 26.15% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.33)0-2 @ 3% ( 0.25)1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.33% Total : 18.89% |
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