SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 69.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 10.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.56%) and 3-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Algeria in this match.
| Result | ||
| Algeria | Draw | Ethiopia |
69.78% ( 0.17) | 19.65% ( -0.2) | 10.57% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 39.87% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.38% ( 0.85) | 51.62% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.59% ( 0.74) | 73.41% ( -0.73) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.32% ( 0.32) | 13.68% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.1% ( 0.63) | 40.9% ( -0.63) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.19% ( 0.59) | 53.8% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.85% ( 0.36) | 87.15% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Algeria | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 14.64% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 14.56% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.26% Total : 69.78% | 1-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.41% Total : 19.65% | 0-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 10.57% |
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