SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 51.18%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 19.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Mozambique |
51.18% ( -0.58) | 28.84% ( -0.21) | 19.97% ( 0.78) |
| Both teams to score 36.72% ( 1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.54% ( 1.14) | 67.46% ( -1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.42% ( 0.75) | 85.57% ( -0.75) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( 0.27) | 27.05% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.58% ( 0.36) | 62.41% ( -0.36) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.34% ( 1.61) | 49.66% ( -1.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.58% ( 1.1) | 84.42% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 17.56% ( -0.61) 2-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.31)2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.58% Total : 51.18% | 0-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.57) 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.3% Total : 28.84% | 0-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 1% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.97% |
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