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African Nations Championship | Group Stage
Jan 17, 2023 at 4pm UK
 
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Mozambique
3 - 2
Libya

Alexandre (74'), Nene (80'), King (84')
Muze (43'), King (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Chico (23' og.), Saltou (90+3')
Jaddour (82')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique
Saturday, January 14 at 1pm in African Nations Championship
All competitions
African Nations Championship
Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Libya
Friday, January 13 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

We said: Mozambique 0-1 Libya

Neither team is in impressive attacking form, so we are anticipating a drab affair with little goalmouth action at either end. That said, we can also see Libya narrowly piping Mozambique to all three points at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 46.52%. A draw had a probability of 32.7% and a win for Libya had a probability of 20.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (6.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.26%), while for a Libya win it was 0-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.

Result
MozambiqueDrawLibya
46.52% (2.369 2.37) 32.67% (-0.623 -0.62) 20.81% (-1.742 -1.74)
Both teams to score 30.47% (-0.257 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
24.28% (0.47 0.47)75.72% (-0.46600000000001 -0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
9.32% (0.266 0.27)90.68% (-0.26300000000001 -0.26)
Mozambique Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.13% (1.652 1.65)33.87% (-1.65 -1.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.46% (1.748 1.75)70.54% (-1.745 -1.75)
Libya Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.07% (-1.58 -1.58)53.93% (1.583 1.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.77% (-0.998 -1)87.23% (1.001 1)
Score Analysis
    Mozambique 46.51%
    Libya 20.8%
    Draw 32.67%
MozambiqueDrawLibya
1-0 @ 19.77% (0.53 0.53)
2-0 @ 10.7% (0.74 0.74)
2-1 @ 6.61% (0.163 0.16)
3-0 @ 3.86% (0.426 0.43)
3-1 @ 2.39% (0.161 0.16)
4-0 @ 1.05% (0.157 0.16)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 46.51%
0-0 @ 18.26% (-0.33 -0.33)
1-1 @ 12.21% (-0.24 -0.24)
2-2 @ 2.04% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 32.67%
0-1 @ 11.27% (-0.76 -0.76)
1-2 @ 3.77% (-0.261 -0.26)
0-2 @ 3.48% (-0.412 -0.41)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 20.8%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique
Saturday, January 14 at 1pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: South Africa 2-1 Mozambique
Thursday, November 17 at 6.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mozambique 1-1 Senegal (2-4 pen.)
Sunday, July 17 at 2.30pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Namibia 1-0 Mozambique
Friday, July 15 at 3pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Mozambique (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, July 13 at 4pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Benin 0-1 Mozambique
Wednesday, June 8 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Libya
Friday, January 13 at 7pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Libya 2-1 Tanzania
Tuesday, September 27 at 6pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Libya 0-0 Uganda
Wednesday, September 21 at 6pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Eq Guinea 2-0 Libya
Monday, June 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Libya 1-0 Botswana
Wednesday, June 1 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mauritania 2-0 Libya
Tuesday, March 29 at 8pm in International Friendlies


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