Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
