Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 67.75%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Varbergs BoIS had a probability of 13.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 1-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Varbergs BoIS win it was 1-2 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
