SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 65.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 13.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.22%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
65.72% ( -0.8) | 21.08% ( 0.28) | 13.19% ( 0.53) |
| Both teams to score 43.47% ( 0.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.73% ( 0.02) | 51.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.9% ( 0.02) | 73.1% ( -0.02) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.17% ( -0.25) | 14.82% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.88% ( -0.47) | 43.12% ( 0.48) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.04% ( 0.87) | 48.96% ( -0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.07% ( 0.61) | 83.93% ( -0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 13.85% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 13.22% ( -0.24)2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.09% Total : 65.71% | 1-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.26% ( -0)2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.56% Total : 21.08% | 0-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.63% Total : 13.2% |
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