Home field has been extremely kind to Boca Juniors through the years, and we believe that will continue against a Corinthians side who, while vastly improved from a year ago, have not created a lot on the road of late.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 47.23%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 22.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.53%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
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