SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 17.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Belgrano |
55.37% ( 1.4) | 26.74% ( -0.73) | 17.89% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 38.56% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.53% ( 1.44) | 63.47% ( -1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.2% ( 1.03) | 82.8% ( -1.03) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.7% ( 1.26) | 23.29% ( -1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.76% ( 1.8) | 57.24% ( -1.8) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.27% ( 0.05) | 49.73% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.53% ( 0.04) | 84.47% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Belgrano |
| 1-0 @ 16.87% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 12.29% ( 0.24)2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.33)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.32% Total : 55.36% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 11.58% ( -0.64)2-2 @ 3% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.36% Total : 26.73% | 0-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.43) 1-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.9% Total : 17.89% |
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