Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 35.79%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.14%) and 2-1 (6.8%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (13.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
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