SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 35.79%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.14%) and 2-1 (6.8%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (13.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
35.79% ( -0.1) | 31.24% ( -0) | 32.97% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 38.94% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.18% ( 0.01) | 68.82% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.53% ( 0.01) | 86.47% ( -0.01) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.41% ( -0.06) | 36.59% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.62% ( -0.06) | 73.38% ( 0.06) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.4% ( 0.08) | 38.59% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.66% ( 0.08) | 75.33% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 14.19% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 1.9% Total : 35.78% | 0-0 @ 14.12% 1-1 @ 13.51% 2-2 @ 3.24% ( 0)Other @ 0.37% Total : 31.23% | 0-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 1.59% Total : 32.97% |
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