SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 34.78%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (6.86%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-0 (13.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Boca Juniors |
34.57% ( 0.15) | 30.64% ( 0.13) | 34.78% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 40.48% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.95% ( -0.4) | 67.05% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.7% ( -0.27) | 85.3% ( 0.27) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.55% ( -0.12) | 36.44% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.77% ( -0.12) | 73.23% ( 0.11) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.7% ( -0.42) | 36.3% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.91% ( -0.43) | 73.08% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 13.35% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 34.57% | 1-1 @ 13.53% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 13.22% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.42% Total : 30.63% | 0-1 @ 13.4% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.95% Total : 34.78% |
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