SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-0 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Belgrano |
34.81% ( -0.96) | 30.19% ( 0.01) | 35% ( 0.95) |
| Both teams to score 41.64% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.31% ( -0.01) | 65.69% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.63% ( -0.01) | 84.37% ( 0) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.47% ( -0.66) | 35.53% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.7% ( -0.69) | 72.29% ( 0.69) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.59% ( 0.66) | 35.4% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.83% ( 0.67) | 72.16% ( -0.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Belgrano |
| 1-0 @ 13.01% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.08% Total : 34.8% | 1-1 @ 13.51% 0-0 @ 12.57% 2-2 @ 3.63% ( 0)Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.17% | 0-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.11% Total : 35% |
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