SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35.85%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 34.29% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.22%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (12.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | Belgrano |
34.29% ( -0.1) | 29.87% ( -0.05) | 35.85% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 42.47% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.3% ( 0.15) | 64.7% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.32% ( 0.11) | 83.68% ( -0.11) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( 0.01) | 35.36% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( 0.02) | 72.11% ( -0.02) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( 0.18) | 34.3% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( 0.19) | 70.99% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | Belgrano |
| 1-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 7.01% 2-0 @ 6.55% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 34.28% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.86% | 0-1 @ 12.97% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 35.84% |
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