SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Instituto win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Instituto |
45.97% ( 0.04) | 26.05% ( 0.06) | 27.98% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 51.09% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.14% ( -0.3) | 52.85% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.53% ( -0.25) | 74.47% ( 0.25) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.05% ( -0.11) | 22.95% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.27% ( -0.16) | 56.73% ( 0.16) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.31% ( -0.23) | 33.68% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.66% ( -0.26) | 70.33% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Instituto |
| 1-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 45.96% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.73% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 8.41% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.58% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 27.98% |
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