Having stumbled into the new campaign, Independiente have picked up two wins from their last two outings and will return to action in the league with confidence. However, Instituto have proven tough to crack this season and we predict they will hold the Red Devils to a share of the spoils in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.43%. A draw had a probability of 31.1% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 23.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.01%) and 1-2 (7.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.24%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
