SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 46.03%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 25.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
46.03% ( 0.3) | 28.21% ( -0.09) | 25.76% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 43.53% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.2% ( 0.17) | 61.79% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.41% ( 0.13) | 81.58% ( -0.13) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.08% ( 0.24) | 26.91% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.76% ( 0.31) | 62.24% ( -0.31) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.56% ( -0.09) | 40.44% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.95% ( -0.08) | 77.05% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 14.28% 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.71% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.82% Total : 46.02% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.88% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.55% Total : 28.2% | 0-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 1.32% Total : 25.76% |
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