SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.32%) and 2-1 (7.02%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 0-1 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | San Lorenzo |
36.68% ( -0.48) | 30.85% ( -0.1) | 32.47% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 39.82% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.24% ( 0.34) | 67.76% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.22% ( 0.23) | 85.78% ( -0.22) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.6% ( -0.13) | 35.4% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.83% ( -0.14) | 72.17% ( 0.14) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.64% ( 0.63) | 38.36% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.88% ( 0.6) | 75.12% ( -0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 14.1% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 36.68% | 0-0 @ 13.58% ( -0.17) 1-1 @ 13.51% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.4% Total : 30.85% | 0-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.62% Total : 32.47% |
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