SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Lanus |
47.05% ( -0.44) | 26.47% ( 0.1) | 26.48% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 48.75% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.63% ( -0.14) | 55.37% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.43% ( -0.11) | 76.57% ( 0.11) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.47% ( -0.26) | 23.53% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.43% ( -0.38) | 57.57% ( 0.38) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.75% ( 0.22) | 36.25% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.97% ( 0.22) | 73.03% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 12.34% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.69% Total : 47.05% | 1-1 @ 12.52% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.35% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.89% Total : 26.48% |
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