Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
