Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Instituto win was 0-1 (11.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
