SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 53.23%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Instituto |
53.23% ( -0.61) | 27.17% ( 0.52) | 19.6% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 39.89% ( -1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.91% ( -1.49) | 63.09% ( 1.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.47% ( -1.09) | 82.53% ( 1.1) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.93% ( -0.92) | 24.08% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.65% ( -1.33) | 58.36% ( 1.34) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.55% ( -0.77) | 47.46% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.17% ( -0.59) | 82.83% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Instituto |
| 1-0 @ 16.26% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.2% Total : 53.22% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 11.42% ( 0.62)2-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.41% Total : 27.16% | 0-1 @ 8.52% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.27% Total : 19.6% |
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