Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Union had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 2-1 (8.11%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.