SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union in this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
37.3% ( 0.04) | 29.07% ( -0.23) | 33.64% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 44.57% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.86% ( 0.78) | 62.14% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.16% ( 0.57) | 81.84% ( -0.56) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.98% ( 0.43) | 32.02% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.52% ( 0.48) | 68.49% ( -0.48) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.57% ( 0.55) | 34.44% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.85% ( 0.58) | 71.15% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 12.55% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.82% Total : 37.29% | 1-1 @ 13.38% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.02% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.59% Total : 29.06% | 0-1 @ 11.75% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 6.27% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.28% Total : 33.63% |
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