Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%).
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