SM
| Current League D1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Moldova | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Latvia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Liechtenstein | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League D1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Moldova | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Latvia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Liechtenstein | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Moldova win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Latvia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moldova | Draw | Latvia |
30.16% ( 0.11) | 26.77% ( -0.05) | 43.07% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 50.15% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.33% ( 0.22) | 54.66% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24% ( 0.18) | 75.99% ( -0.19) |
| Moldova Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.01% ( 0.2) | 32.99% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.42% ( 0.22) | 69.57% ( -0.22) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.84% ( 0.06) | 25.15% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.12% ( 0.09) | 59.87% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moldova | Draw | Latvia |
| 1-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.53% Total : 30.16% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.77% | 0-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 8.76% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 43.06% |
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