Both sides will enter the contest in confident mood after their respective unbeaten starts to the Nations League, and with neither nation wanting to give an inch to their promotion rival, we think that Friday's contest will see the points shared.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Moldova win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Latvia would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.05) 
