Iceland should have no trouble in progressing to the final here, with a clear gulf in quality existing between them and their opponents. As such, we expect them to win by a comfortable margin, booking a first ever appearance in the Baltic Cup final.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
