SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lithuania | Draw | Iceland |
35.37% ( -0.03) | 25.95% ( 0.01) | 38.68% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.3% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.95% ( -0.05) | 50.05% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.98% ( -0.04) | 72.02% ( 0.04) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.76% ( -0.04) | 27.24% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.33% ( -0.05) | 62.67% ( 0.05) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.64% ( -0.01) | 25.36% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lithuania | Draw | Iceland |
| 1-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.02% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.84% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 3.01% Total : 35.37% | 1-1 @ 12.32% 0-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.95% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.87% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.33% 0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 38.68% |
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