Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 28.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
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