Even with the possibility of the new manager bounce coming into effect for Flamengo, international call-ups have left Tite short of goal threats in midfield, and Cruzeiro are hardly ever breached at will on their own turf.
However, the hosts have been lacking a clinical edge in front of the home crowd all season long, and Flamengo's defence should have no trouble containing the shot-shy Cruzeiro attack while nicking a goal or two at the other end to begin the Tite era in positive fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
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